Washington — The White House welcomed on Tuesday the rescue of an Israeli hostage abducted October 7 by Hamas and said a Gaza cease-fire deal is being finalized.
But even if an agreement is reached, a truce is unlikely to extend beyond the six weeks of phase one of the three-phase deal. The next U.S. administration will still inherit the role of managing tensions in the region.
Since becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris has aimed to strike a balance between reaffirming U.S. support for Israel and advocating for Palestinian humanitarian needs — in essence, signaling a continuation of President Joe Biden’s policies on the Israel-Hamas war and, more broadly, the Middle East.
Harris summed up her position in her acceptance speech as the Democratic presidential nominee at the party’s convention in Chicago.
“President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination,” she said.
Democrats are enthusiastic about Harris, even though she has not yet laid out her own policies. And unlike Biden, a longtime member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, most of Harris’ exposure to foreign policy was during her tenure as vice president.
Not having “foreign policy baggage” might benefit Harris in the eyes of Democratic voters, said Natasha Hall, senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Hall pointed out that in October 2002, Biden was one of 77 senators who gave President George W. Bush the authority to use force in Iraq, a decision that eventually became a liability for Biden, much as his staunch support for Israel has become the most divisive issue in his own party.
Adviser’s influence
Those looking to see whether Harris’ Mideast policy will diverge from Biden’s can look to her national security adviser, Phillip Gordon, who is expected to remain in the role if she is elected. He would be the principal adviser to the president on all national security issues, including foreign policy.
“Phil Gordon is the type of adviser that colors in the lines,” Hall told VOA. “He’s the kind of person that I think very much is sort of old-fashioned American foreign policy.”
Gordon was against ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power in 2003. He chronicled American efforts to overthrow leaders in the Middle East in his 2020 book, “Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East.”
“The U.S. policy debate about the Middle East suffers from the fallacy that there is an external American solution to every problem, even when decades of painful experience suggest that this is not the case,” he wrote. “And regime change is the worst ‘solution.'”
Such an outlook would make a Harris administration “very, very cautious to deal assertively with Iran,” said Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Political Studies Department at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.
From an Israeli perspective, however, Harris’ direct involvement in the administration’s recent decision to deploy more military assets to the Middle East to deter Iran is good news, Rynhold told VOA.
“If that is the policy that she goes on to adopt, then that crosses the minimal threshold of what Israel needs on Iran,” he said. “It may not be what Israel desires, which is a more forceful approach, but it is not a passive one.”
Current Harris aides have told VOA that Harris she intends to stay on the path that Biden has laid out: working beyond a cease-fire toward a two-state solution without sacrificing Israel’s security.
Harris’ former national security adviser while she was in the Senate, Halie Soifer, agreed.
“The vice president and the president have supported U.S. military assistance to Israel, not just for the existing agreement that we have with Israel,” said Soifer, who is now the CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America. “But also an increase this year because of their security needs,” she told VOA
Generational and personal background
Biden’s generation, with a more visceral sense of the Holocaust, views Israel as a tiny democracy surrounded by hostile Arab powers. People of Harris’ generation and younger see Israel for what it is today: a thriving democracy and the region’s top military power. While Biden and Harris may share the same goal for Israel’s security, there’s not the same emotional resonance, Rynhold said.
Younger Americans “don’t remember a time when Jews and Israel were extremely vulnerable,” he said. “So they don’t have a same sense of that continuing vulnerability that President Biden really has.”
And for the president, Israel is integral to the story of America’s role in the world.
“America is there to prevent the Holocaust. America is there to support democracies, and Israel is central to his way of understanding that role,” Rynhold said.
If elected, Harris would become the first person to hold the highest office in the land whose parents are both immigrants. Barack Obama’s father was born in Kenya, and Donald Trump’s mother was born in the U.K. Harris’ father came from Jamaica and her mother, from India.
Unlike Biden, who often underscores that he is a Zionist, a loaded term often viewed with scorn in many parts of the world, Harris may be more sensitive to views from the Global South.
In a 2018 speech to an Indian American group, Harris spoke fondly of childhood visits to the home of her maternal grandfather, P.V. Gopalan, describing him as someone who had fought for “freedom and for justice and for independence.”
“She is aware of how the rest of the world may feel about the Middle East, about neocolonialism, neoimperialism,” Hall said. “I really hope that she has the opportunity to bring those experiences to bear if she becomes the president.”
But it’s hard to tell what a Harris doctrine would eventually look like.
“What she says now is directed to winning an election and keeping the Democratic Party together,” Rynhold said.
And since the party is evenly split between those sympathetic to Israel and those sympathetic to the Palestinians, she must express platitudes, he said.
“And that’s what she has done.”
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